41Risk Assessment and Consequence Modeling of Propane Escaping from Pipe in Tehran Oil Refining Company (Shahid Tond Gouyan)


Considering the fact that Propane pipelines have potential risk in the oil Sites implementing crisis management realistically, requires that the consequences of probable accidents scientifically explored and assessed. Any leakage in pipes can lead to fire, explosion, equipment damage, or toxicity to the personnel or people around, so that the impact and severity of any incident should be modeled to be assessable and predictable. Thus, in case of any leakage incidents the severity of toxic, combustible or explosive liquid/gas must be evaluated by HSE Units in order to minimize the loss. In this article, for modeling consequences, ALOHA software is used to help assess the extent of the risks in Tehran Oil Refining Company (ShahidTondGouyan) and CAMEO MARPLOT software shows it on map. ALOHA results show that AEGL-3 is at most 361 m (more than 33000 ppm), AEGL-2 is about 575 m (more than 17000 ppm) & AEGL-1 is about 1.2 km (more than 5500 ppm). Till 499 m (lower explosive limit) LEL is more than 21000 ppm, to 701 m 60% LEL is 12600 ppm and to 2.1 km 10% LEL is more than 2100 ppm which can cause an incident. Overpressure (blast force) threat zone has no pressure more than 8 psi to destruct buildings, but serious injury likely is probable in pressure greater than 3.5 psi that is until the 515 m and more than 1.0 psi can shatter glasses to 639 meters from origin. Tehran oil refining company has considered both Suitable safe distance of refinery from city and appropriate PPE in the various levels of risk for its personnel, so that neither of them is highly at risk.

Keywords: risk assessment, consequence Modeling, propane pipelines, crisis management, ALOHA.


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